Archive for the ‘Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo’ Category
August 6, 2008
The airline industry. An upfront apology for the unintentional hiatus in my posting folks, but I uncovered the not-so-hidden problems with our airline industry this week and spent about 50 hours delayed in 6 days.
Why do I think the airline industry is in far worse shape than the real estate market? Because the airlines are getting hit in every direction, whereas the real estate market has far more localized pockets of failures matched to areas of improvement.
Case in point, I was visiting with a Chicago Realtor about the state of the market from the peak a few years back. She explained that the market in the Northwest suburbs has such a disparity that you have to break down the price declines by neighborhoods, not just cities. For instance one neighborhood was sitting just fine and had faced an approximate 3% loss in value at most from the peak in 2005/2006. Meanwhile a few miles down the road home values had gone from the upper $400’s to selling for a meager $315k.
So what does that mean for us Californians? I think we get hit with far more doom and gloom because while the declines are somewhat localized on a national scale(some cities have gotten hit way harder) - the overall market decline covers most of the state.
PMI’s assessment of which markets are at stake for continued loss or gain shows just how localized the “crash” is.
Photo Courtesy of PMI
As you can see, a very large section of the country has a slim to none chance (according to their prediction) of losing home values. Markets appear to be strengthening just about everywhere else other than here and in Florida.
The LA Times blog reports:
Mortgage insurer PMI Group’s latest report on the risk of falling home prices concludes there are “two distinctly different paths” for housing in America right now: most of the nation’s housing markets are showing signs of improvement, but bubble-inflated markets in California and Florida are showing signs of further deterioration amid rising foreclosures.
But what does that mean for us locally?
At first glance it gives little hope to most of us since most Laguna Hills and Mission Viejo residence have lost value on their homes. It is smart to remember, however, that most of the huge losses are very localized. Additionally some neighborhoods just haven’t been hit quite as hard (see Neighborhood Spotlight: Castille). So when local analysts or the national news get all hyped up about just how horrible the real estate market is, remember that it’s not this bad everywhere - us Californians are just seeing the worst of it.
August 1, 2008
Located right on the corner of Alicia and Moulton is probably the hardest hit neighborhood in all of Laguna Hills - Via Lomas. Via Lomas was (and still is) the cheapest neighborhood to move into so when the subprime mortgage games began it was an easy target for dicey loans for first time homebuyers in particular. The street is LINED with foreclosures and for that, the prices have plumetted. Here’s a sample of what sold for what when. It gives a dismal picture of just how bad this mortgage mess got at it’s worst.
25881 Via Lomas Apt 239
2 beds / 1 bath / 894 Sq Ft
Sold For: $370,000 (11.15.05)
25856 Via Lomas Apt 35
2 beds / 2 baths / 897 Sq Ft
Sold For: $395,000 (4.28.06)
25816 Via Lomas Apt 61
2 beds / 2 baths / 901 Sq Ft
Sold For: $390,000 (8.01.06)
25761 Via Lomas Apt 150
2 bed / 1 bath / 893 Sq Ft
Sold For: $138,500 (7.9.08)
25815 Via Lomas Apt 201
2 bed / 1 bath / 901 Sq Ft
Sold For: $194,500 (3.13.08)
On The Market Now:
25792 Via Lomas #78
3 beds / 2 baths / 1357 Sq Ft
Listed For: $200,000
25762 Via Lomas #99
3 beds / 1 bath / 1,170 Sq Ft
Listed For: $209,900
25775 Via Lomas #164
2 beds / 2 baths / 897 Sq Ft
Listed For: $170,000
July 30, 2008
With all this talk of bottoms, plateaus, and leveling out of the local real estate market I thought I would take a look at the numbers and see what story they tell us about the state of the Laguna Hills real estate market.
Days On Market
It turns out that the inventory in Laguna Hills is on the up and up. It’s gone from a low around 120 in January to about 134 now. While it’s an increase, we’re still only talking about 14 additional houses. I didn’t even post the chart because it looks scarier than it really is! The other good bit of news is that the average days on market has leveled and stayed level for about three months. The disheartening part about it is that the average days on market is that it’s sitting just over four months. That’s an awfully long time to sell your home. With the number of foreclosures out there, the competition to sell is steep and sellers will have to take drastic measures in order to remain competitive.
Median Price
Speaking of some of those drastic measures, one look at the median prices shows just what measures need to be taken - price it right. The median price of the home on the market in Laguna Hills sits right around $777k. This is by far the most surprising number of them all. At the lowest the number dipped to about $755k. To see an incline is shocking.
Looking at these numbers many might jump to say that we’ve hit the bottom, but given all things I’m reluctant to say so. The median price does seem to be increasing but with a market as small as Laguna Hills, the simple sale of some larger homes (say Nellie Gail) can really skew the data. In fact, a quick glance shows that in the last three months there were over 10 of the $950K Nellie Gail homes sold - many in June and early July.
I think these numbers only affirm what I’ve been discussing a lot lately we’ve hit a plateau of sorts, not the bottom. There’s a little stablization in the market and we’re not facing the full on free fall that we experienced for the last twelve months. But there’s still a lot of sorting out to be done. There’s a long way to go so we’ll have to see where the road takes us.
July 29, 2008
Not surprising analysts and mavens alike, the California foreclosure problem escalates. Both Dataquick and Foreclosureradar.com recently released numbers that paint a dismal picture on the state of foreclosures in the Golden State.
Dataquick’s stats and analysis indicate that we might be hitting a plateau as the numbers are starting to stablize a bit. On first read I was reluctant to agree, but they also noted, “Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between September 2005 and November 2006.” Also noted was the fact that multi-loan mortgages peaked near the end of 2006. This means we’re starting to near the end of the timeline for the dicier loans and seeing the fall out as prices increase.
I am anxious to see what happens, however, when the more appropriate, but still risky loans with 5 year-arms come up to expire in 2010 and 2011 and the home values still have not recovered. We might see Round II then.
Worthy of Noting
- Orange County Sits Mid-Level: According to Foreclosureradar.com Orange County does not lead the pack in the state for foreclosures. Instead, the county actually saw a 2% decrease in foreclosures from May of ‘08. But don’t get too excited yet, when compared to June of ‘07 foreclosures are up 247% .
- Less People Are Recovering: Dataquick reports a year ago, just over half the people facing foreclosure were able to stay in their home, the numbers are getting less hopeful. “Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 22 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe.”
- It’s Hitting Home: The Foreclosure Factor is undoubtedly taking a toll on the markets. “Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 40.0 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 5.4 percent.”
July 26, 2008
Aliso Place is inconspicuously conspicuous. It’s readily accessible, but a person can drive by it a thousand times and not quite notice it’s there. Aliso Place is tucked off of Paseo de Valencia right near La Paz in Laguna Hills. It’s close to schools (walking distance to the elementary and high schools), offers some great views of the Saddleback Mountains and has great access to parks as well. Most of the models are pretty roomy offering 2,500+ Sq Ft of living space per home. What’s been happening in the real estate market there?
On the Market
25992 Sarita Dr
3 beds / 3 baths / 2,651 Sq Ft
Listed For: $619,000
DOM: 40
25511 La Mirada
4 beds / 3 baths / 3,008 Sq FT
Listed For: $708,000
DOM: 39 Days
24822 Largo Dr
4 beds / 3 baths / 2,870 Sq Ft
Listed For: $745,000
DOM: 102
Past Sales
24852 Largo Dr $729,000 (3.01.07)
25581 La Mirada St $929,000 (3.13.07)
25505 La Mirada St $905,000 (4.17.07)
25531 El Capitan $815,000 (8.13.07)
25022 Marin Ct $710,000 (8.30.07)
25391 Linda Vista Dr $650,000 (5.30.08)
July 24, 2008
Jon Lansner certainly thinks so. His recent blog gives several indicators:
- OC home prices rose in June
- Increased sales rate
- Supply down
- And more
I’m not so optimistic. I don’t want to be the naysayer, but the number of low interest rates/arms set to expire from 2009-2011 and the home values certainly not rebounding in time to refinance makes me nervous that this is just the bottom of round I. I don’t think Round II will be quite as bad, but it certainly won’t help. That said, I think we still have some time before crying “bottom”.
CNNMoney.com reports that they think that there are several factors indicating the market has not yet hit rock bottom.
The factors that are weighing on the housing market remain in place - weak consumer confidence, a weak labor market and rising mortgage rates - so there are some strong fundamental headwinds still weighing on the market,” said Robert Dye, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
“We are hoping for a bottom, but we are not expecting any significant rebound from that bottom until the labor market and consumer confidence starts to improve,” he added.
I have to agree there are too many unknowns and weaknesses in the market. Until we see some more strength from the consumer perspective, as well as a well-laid plan to account for the millions of homes that are doomed for foreclosure when the arms and interest rates rise in the next few years, things aren’t going to get much better.
July 21, 2008
Photo courtesy of Styledash.com
While So Cal has been known to push the fashion envelope and preview and dabble with the latest fashion trends, I have noticing a disturbing shift - the 80’s.
Yep, leggings, stirrup pants, and bright, bold colors are making their way back into prominent wardrobes. Apparently enough people didn’t learn the first time and have decided to take part in another fashion disaster again.
But alas, the fashion is not the only part of the 80’s we’re facing right now. The real estate market is heading back in that direction quickly! According to Housingwire.com the market for resale homes is as slow as it was back in 1988.
Other notable and discouraging bits of information:
- Southern California saw comparatively much more foreclosure resale activity, relative to Northern California; Los Angeles and related areas in the southern part of the state saw foreclosures make up 41.1 percent of all resales, while Northern California saw 28.7 percent of resales represented by foreclosures.
- Around half the drop in median was due to depreciation, DataQuick said, with the other half due to shifts in the types of homes selling, and how those homes are financed; this is a critical point in assessing true price performance in any local market, and in California, indicates that absolute dearth of lending in the so-called jumbo mortgage market.
Some of the worst victims on the market today in Mission Viejo:
28051 Via Machado
2 beds / 2 baths / 1,437 Sq Ft
Listed at: $427,000
DOM: 530 Days
28262 Driza
4 beds / 3 baths / 3,327 Sq Ft
Listed For: $898,000
DOM: 747
131 Valley View Ter
2 beds / 3 baths / 1,1656 Sq Ft
Listed For: $384,900
DOM: 462
28092 Tefir
5 beds / 4.5 baths / 3,782 Sq Ft
Listed For: $1,650,000
DOM: 439
July 18, 2008
When my family relocated here to So Cal from rural Central Illinois, I was amazed by the proximity of grocery stores, Starbucks, and parks near most homes we looked at. In fact, I love the fact I can walk with my kids to the grocery store to grab a few groceries, grab lunch at the park, etc. And with gas prices on the rise you better believe I’m hightailing it with the stroller more and more.
With the unletting increase in gas prices you can only imagine that choosing a home with great location and walkability will probably become a more significant factor.
Enter, WalkScore.com . The rate and rank neighborhoods based on walkability to various necessities on a scale of 1-100 (100 has the highest walk factor). You can search by address or even by city (which is less accurate). Depending on the area both Laguna Hills and Mission Viejo have some highly walkable and some highly car dependent areas.
Walk Score does address some of their “How It Doesn’t Work” factors:
Public transit: Good public transit is important for walkable neighborhoods.
Street width and block length: Narrow streets slow down traffic. Short blocks provide more routes to the same destination and make it easier to take a direct route.
Street design: Sidewalks and safe crossings are essential to walkability. Appropriate automobile speeds, trees, and other features also help.
Safety from crime and crashes: How much crime is in the neighborhood? How many traffic accidents are there? Are streets well-lit?
Pedestrian-friendly community design: Are buildings close to the sidewalk with parking in back? Are destinations clustered together?
Topography: Hills can make walking difficult, especially if you’re carrying groceries.
Freeways and bodies of water: Freeways can divide neighborhoods. Swimming is harder than walking.
Weather: In some places it’s just too hot or cold to walk regularly.
For me, they missed another big one - geography! My neighborhood has great walkability in one direction. While there are stores, parks, etc. in another direction it is a steep walk. And by steep I mean nearly impossible to get up or down. I have to throw the car into 3rd gear on the way down the road when driving to save my brakes every day.
So as you’re looking into homes and doing your research you can add yet another thing to your checklist to look into - walkability.
July 14, 2008
And if there’s something that we Californians love to grumble about - it’s traffic.
Remeber Measure M? Some of us have voted on it twice now and that micro-tax has added up and there’s a nice pool of funds available to fix the local roads. I have to admit that I was pleased to see which roads are up for improvement in Laguna Hills and Mission Viejo because these are ones that have driven me crazy for the last few years.
In particular, the improvements around Marguerite and Crown Valley. That intersection singlehandedly affected our decision to purchase a home on the west side of the interchange so as to avoid the mess. It often takes 10-15 minutes to head 1 mile down Crown Valley in either direction.
According to the OC Register, these are the properties that will be facing updates.
LAGUNA HILLS
Laguna Hills is getting $433,176 to be used for street and road improvements, and traffic signal improvement along Alicia Parkway and La Paz Road.
MISSION VIEJO
Mission Viejo projects approved for funding are:
Oso/Marguerite intersection improvement – $100,000
Crown Valley/Marguerite intersection improvement – $487,280
Alicia Parkway and Trabuco Road signal upgrades – $152,119
Crown Valley and Marguerite Parkway business area – $153,024
La Paz Road and Marguerite Parkway Central business area – $122,969
Marguerite Parkway and Los Alisos Boulevard com/school – $56,355
Oso Parkway and Felipe Signal coordination and closed circuit television – $112,712
So happy driving, it should get a little better in the near future!
July 13, 2008
It seems that this mortgage crisis is nowhere near ending. It seems that each bump in the road and proposed solution only leads to another problem.
Oh how the mighty have fallen. We’re about to see the next two industry giants (Freddie and Fannie) fall like Miss USA, or at least come really close to it. I can honestly say I am totally unsure how this will all play out in the next few weeks, but I’ll be glued to the news feed watching. Will the dust settle somehow? Will things continue to implode? Will the media feed on this like frantic sharks in a pool of blood? Okay at least I can guarantee the last one!
And it seems that the mighty mortgage companies and banks aren’t the only one falling these days, home prices continue to drop. Jon Lansner reports that California continues to top the list of dropped home values. From June ‘07 to June ‘08 the statewide number sits around 27 percent.
Included in the big drops are these big price reductions. Judging from the numbers, these are the kinds of homes and sales at the root cause of this mortgage problem.
26701 QUAIL Crk , LH
1 bed / 1 bath / 680 Sq Ft
Previously Listed: $325,000
Currently Listed: $235,000
Last Sold: $329,000 (8.8.06)
28542 Munera, MV
3 beds / 3 baths / 2,301 Sq Ft
Previously Listed: $619,000
Currently Listed: $549,000
Last Sold: $735,000 (5.14.04)
20975 Sequoia Ln, MV
3 beds / 3 baths / 2,000 Sq Ft
Previously Listed: $599,900
Currently Listed: $560,000
Last Sold: $545,000 (2006)
