August 7, 2008

Reverse Suburban Migration?

It used to be that people would trade in their short commutes for a bigger house with a nice yard for their kids to play in. They’d prefer to spend an hour in the car everyday if it meant that their kids would have a safe neighborhood to ride their bikes around in and the family could have the house of their dreams (at the price they could afford).

Well, speaking of affordability, that long commute is getting less and less affordable. That dream house out in the suburbs is becoming less of a reality and more of a dream. It’s not just gas prices and inflation that are too blame. In Orange County, we have a distinct lack of reliable public transportation. Living up in Yorba Linda and commuting down to Irvine wouldn’t be such a problem if there was a rail line that whipped you right down.

Mary Ann Milbourn’s post on Lansner’s blog (”Long commute? Good-bye O.C.“) discusses these issues in the context of a recent release from RREEF Research. The release claims “A short automotive commute, a commute by public transport, and even a walking or bicycling commute has become more appealing. Thus, demand will increase for residential locations with good access to employment centers and will decrease for peripheral suburban bedroom communities that are poorly served by transit.” Milbourn ponders the question if this reverse suburban migration will pose a challenge for the OC in attracting residents in the future.

Milbourn describes a possible transportation-seeking phenomenon that may have already occurred: “Experts already have suggested that a tight rental market in North County may not just be due to cheaper apartments, but may also be evidence of people migrating closer to public transit and jobs in Los Angeles.”

A recent article in the L.A. Times by Paloma Esquive (”Busy bus route reveals a cross section of O.C.“) depicts the long commute on the packed (and getting more packed) 57 line. Esquive talks about potential solutions to ease the congestion: “At one time there were plans to replace the bus with light rail, but years of studies, turf wars and battles for funding made those efforts futile. In the end, the OCTA proposed a rapid bus system with fewer stops. The new buses should be ready in 2010, officials say.” More buses is better than nothing, but it still seems like a long way off for implementation for such a mediocre solution.

The San Diego Union Tribune ran an article (”Fuel for thought: Gas prices changing commuters’ attitudes“) in July about the changing behaviors of consumers with gas prices and a lack of a convenient and reliable public transportation service. “As a result, drivers here will have to learn more creative coping skills, from changing how they commute to possibly rethinking where they live.” The article noted that change in behavior has already been happening with changes in what cars are being purchased, according to car dealers interviewed. Also, “San Diego-area transit officials are reporting heavier bus and trolley ridership, as well as a near-record number of van pools.”

Will we see a mass exodus from our OC suburban areas? I would hope we would rather see some nice light rail lines put in.